Unraveling Cumulative Disadvantage: The Impact of Criminal Justice Contact on Employment Income during the COVID-19 Outbreak

Abstract Using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 ( N = 7,502), this study examines how criminal justice contact, specifically arrest and incarceration, is associated with changes in annual employment income before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Results from fixed-effects models indicate that the employment income penalties associated with both arrest and incarceration significantly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic compared to the pre-pandemic period. These employment income penalties, as well as their changes over time, were partially explained by the frequency of arrests, but not by the frequency or duration of incarceration. The analyses further revealed substantial gender and racial/ethnic heterogeneity. While the employment income penalty associated with criminal justice contact increased for both men and women during the pandemic, women experienced greater employment income reductions than men following relatively less severe forms of contact, such as arrest without incarceration. Across racial and ethnic groups, the employment income penalty associated with criminal justice contact also evolved differently over time. In particular, the employment income penalties associated with both arrest and incarceration increased most sharply during the pandemic among White and Hispanic individuals, whereas the penalties remained consistently large among Black individuals throughout the study period.