Structural Limitations of Equilibrium Models and Expansion of Macroeconomic Forecasting Tools

Abstract— The article analyzes the limitations of equilibrium models used by monetary regulators for macroeconomic forecasting. It is shown that the determination of the technological level through a generalized exogenous parameter and high aggregation of models lead to systematic errors in estimating potential output and inflation dynamics and may result in unjustifiably tight monetary policy. An extended approach to macroeconomic modeling is proposed, based on the use of observable factors of the knowledge economy, financial flow matrices, and agent-based modeling methods. The necessity of forming a hybrid architecture for forecasting socio-economic development is substantiated.