Recent strengthening of eastern Pacific ENSO in the last millennium paleorecord

The Pacific El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) generates climate extremes that endanger ecosystems, infrastructure, and human well-being worldwide. The response of this system to climate warming is poorly constrained, due both to data scarcity and uncertainties in climate models. The geochemistry of Galápagos coral skeletons across the past millennium reveals a large recent increase in interannual variability of sea surface temperature in the eastern equatorial Pacific compared to existing paleorecords that exceeds simulated natural variability. This increase parallels rising global temperature and results from stronger El Niño events. Central Pacific coral data also show increased variability, although less distinctly than in the Galápagos. Our results provide long-term context for understanding ENSO variability trends, with troubling implications for climate extremes.

Authors

Institutions

Publication Details

Journal
Science
Published
2026-08-27
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.ady2660
Citations
2
Primary Topic
Pacific and Southeast Asian Studies
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
44.86
Controls
|||
ALL TIME
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
article

Recent strengthening of eastern Pacific ENSO in the last millennium paleorecord

R. Lawrence Edwards, Samantha Stevenson, Kelsey A. Dyez, A. E. Lawman et al.
2 citations
Science
Pacific and Southeast Asian Studies
44.86
article

Recent strengthening of eastern Pacific ENSO in the last millennium paleorecord

R. Lawrence Edwards, Samantha Stevenson, Kelsey A. Dyez, A. E. Lawman, Jonathan T. Overpeck, Gloria Jimenez, A. W. Tudhope, D. M. Thompson, Julia E. Cole, Marcus Löfverström, C.J. Tripp, J. M. Okun, J. L. Conroy
article en
2 citations

Abstract

The Pacific El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) generates climate extremes that endanger ecosystems, infrastructure, and human well-being worldwide. The response of this system to climate warming is poorly constrained, due both to data scarcity and uncertainties in climate models. The geochemistry of Galápagos coral skeletons across the past millennium reveals a large recent increase in interannual variability of sea surface temperature in the eastern equatorial Pacific compared to existing paleorecords that exceeds simulated natural variability. This increase parallels rising global temperature and results from stronger El Niño events. Central Pacific coral data also show increased variability, although less distinctly than in the Galápagos. Our results provide long-term context for understanding ENSO variability trends, with troubling implications for climate extremes.

Science
University of Minnesota (US), University of Arizona (US), University of California, Santa Barbara (US), University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign (US), Colorado College (US), University of Michigan (US), Moody's Corporation (United States) (US), University of Edinburgh (GB)
Climate action
Openalex Percentile: Top 0%
Pacific and Southeast Asian Studies
44.86
DOIOpen Access PDFOpenAlex
AI Navigator

Ask Laika to Summarize, Analyze, and Connect papers live on the map.

Summarize Papers & Methodologies

Extract key findings, datasets, and comparative methods across publications.

Benchmark Rankings & Visual Analytics

Rank top research institutions, authors, funders, topics, and journals by Field-Weighted Citation Impact (FWCI) and paper volume with instant charts.

Connect Distant Disciplines

Bridge topological clusters on the map to find hidden collaborative intersections.