Future trajectories of the BepiColombo MPO and Mio spacecraft: a quantitative tool for magnetospheric region prediction

Abstract Mercury possesses one of the most dynamic magnetospheres in our solar system, with strong driving by the solar wind, and significant motion of the magnetospheric boundaries in response. The BepiColombo mission will provide the first dual-spacecraft view of this system. In order to maximise the scientific output from BepiColombo, we need quantitative predictions of which magnetospheric region each spacecraft will be sampling at any given time. This is important for the planning of spacecraft operations, where the coordination and collaboration of many instruments across two spacecraft is vitally important, not only for science, but also due to telemetry and power limitations. In this work, we outline a new method using MESSENGER observations to make quantified predictions, with uncertainties, of the probability of observing solar wind, magnetosheath, and magnetosphere for a given position in Mercury’s magnetospheric environment. We apply this technique to five of the six completed BepiColombo Mercury flybys, and additionally forecast magnetospheric region sampling during a representative 10-hour interval of the nominal science mission. We aim to make this approach as accessible as possible, and include in a software repository simple worked examples to aid users in applying these predictions in their own research.