Digital services trade networks and manufacturing global value chain integration: a dynamic network perspective

Digital services trade has become an important channel through which countries participate in global production networks. However, limited attention has been paid to how digital services trade networks shape the dynamic evolution of manufacturing global value chain (GVC) networks. This study constructs digital services trade networks and manufacturing GVC networks by integrating sector-level services trade classification, value-added trade decomposition, and social network analysis. Using Temporal Exponential Random Graph Models (TERGMs) and Separable Temporal Exponential Random Graph Models (STERGMs), we examine how digital services trade affects the formation and persistence of manufacturing GVC linkages. The results show that bilateral digital services trade linkages significantly increase the likelihood of manufacturing GVC connections after controlling for country attributes, dyadic characteristics, endogenous network structures, and time effects. The STERGM results further indicate that digital services trade promotes both the creation of new GVC ties and the persistence of existing ties, with a stronger effect on persistence. Heterogeneity analysis shows that this effect exists across country groups, but is more pronounced when digital services trade linkages originate from high-income and advanced economies. At the industry level, the effect is strongest in high-technology industries, remains significant in medium-technology industries, and is insignificant in low-technology industries. These findings reveal that digital services trade functions as a cross-network mechanism that strengthens manufacturing GVC connectivity, consolidates existing production relationships, and creates favorable conditions for deeper GVC integration.