Drivers, Decoupling, and Convergence of Direct Energy-Related CO2 Emissions in EU Agriculture: Evidence from 25 Member States, 2005–2024

This study examines the agricultural energy transition in 25 European Union Member States over 2005–2024, focusing on energy intensity, fossil-fuel dependence, and carbon intensity. It integrates multi-regional Kaya–LMDI decomposition, Tapio decoupling analysis, and σ- and conditional β-convergence models to identify the components associated with changes in direct energy-related agricultural CO2 emissions, assess their relationship with real agricultural gross value added, and determine whether national performance gaps are narrowing. The results show that declining energy intensity and fossil dependence were the main emissions-reducing components, while changes in country structure and carbon intensity partly offset these gains. Within the EU-25 analytical sample, the baseline comparison indicates a shift from recessive decoupling before 2020 to strong decoupling over 2020–2024. Sensitivity tests confirm the robustness of post-2020 strong decoupling, although the characterization of the pre-2020 period is sensitive to sample composition. Conditional β-convergence is observed for all three indicators, whereas σ-convergence is found only for energy intensity; fossil dependence and carbon intensity continue to exhibit substantial cross-country dispersion. Bias-corrected estimates preserve the direction of conditional catch-up but indicate slower adjustment, particularly for fossil dependence. The study’s novelty lies in jointly evaluating emissions decomposition, decoupling, and distributional change while distinguishing relative catch-up towards country-specific trajectories from convergence towards a common EU level. The findings identify energy efficiency, fossil-energy substitution, and differentiated national conditions as relevant areas for CAP-related monitoring and policy consideration. The conclusions concern specifically the energy-related component of agricultural decarbonization.