The role of self-efficacy in shaping willingness to adapt for enhanced resilience among smallholder farmers in Limpopo, South Africa

Climate change adaptation research in sub-Saharan Africa has traditionally prioritised socio-economic and institutional drivers of actualized adaptation measures. However, the cognitive precursors specifically the moderating role of self-efficacy remain under-researched in “climate change hotspot” regions. This study deviates from traditional vulnerability assessments by investigating the psychosocial drivers of the willingness to adapt among 181 smallholder farmers in the Thulamela Municipality, Limpopo, South Africa. Using a quantitative cross-sectional design and ordinal regression analysis, the study evaluated five psychological predictors: awareness, fatalism, religious convictions, place attachment, and belief in adaptation efficacy. The findings reveal a critical “efficacy paradox”. While 49.7% of farmers express a high willingness to adapt, 44.8% harbour significant doubts regarding the actual effectiveness of available adaptation strategies. Statistical analysis (χ 2 = 25.189, p = 0.009) identified the belief that adaptation reduces impacts as the sole significant predictor of willingness (b = 0.378, p = 0.031). Notably, common factors such as climate awareness and place attachment were found to be non-significant, suggesting that psychological capital (self-efficacy) is a more potent driver of intent than knowledge alone. These results differentiate this study by demonstrating that the barrier to resilience in Limpopo is not a lack of willingness, but a lack of confidence in technical outcomes. Policy interventions must therefore evolve beyond simple resource provision to focus on “confidence-building” through peer-to-peer knowledge sharing and the demonstration of tangible adaptation successes.