Market Access and Livelihood Outcomes in Community Forestry: Evidence from Chilgoza Pine Forests in Paktia, Afghanistan

Community forestry is widely promoted as a mechanism for improving rural livelihoods while strengthening sustainable forest management. However, empirical evidence on the income effects of community forestry remains limited in fragile and conflict-affected settings. Therefore, this study examines the relationship between Community Forestry Associations (CFAs) and household income from the chilgoza pine (Pinus gerardiana) value chain in Ahmad Aba District, Paktia Province, Afghanistan. Using survey data from 365 forest-dependent households, the study applied descriptive statistics, reliability assessment, exploratory principal component analysis, Chi-square tests, Spearman correlations, and OLS regression with HC3 heteroscedasticity-robust standard errors. CFA-enabled market access and CFA-supported training were positively and statistically significantly associated with annual pine-nut income, whereas meeting participation and perceived fair pricing were not statistically significant. Households reporting CFA-enabled market access had approximately 88% higher expected income, while households receiving training had approximately 50% higher expected income, controlling for demographic characteristics. The findings demonstrate that community forestry institutions in fragile and market-constrained settings are more likely to generate measurable livelihood benefits when participatory governance is combined with direct market and capacity-building services.