Spatiotemporal Evolution and Driving Mechanisms of Ecological Vulnerability in Guangdong Haifeng Ramsar Site, China

The Guangdong Haifeng Coastal Wetlands (Ramsar Site No. 1727) in Shanwei City are a critical habitat for migratory birds, but the long-term evolution and driving mechanisms of ecological vulnerability under rapid urbanization remain insufficiently understood. In particular, few studies have quantitatively characterized the temporal shifts in the relative roles of anthropogenic pressures and conservation policies over decadal scales. This study developed a landscape pattern-based ecological vulnerability assessment model integrating spatial autocorrelation, Geodetector, the PLUS model, and spatial overlay analysis to diagnose the dynamics and driving mechanisms of the wetlands from 1980 to 2018. The results showed that farmland and woodland dominated Shanwei City, while water bodies consistently dominated the Haifeng Wetlands. Ecological vulnerability exhibited significant spatial heterogeneity, with levels higher in the northwest and lower in the southeast. Forest and water expansion overlapped with vulnerability reduction, whereas built-up and farmland expansion matched increases in vulnerability. Land-use intensity, elevation, and mean annual temperature were identified as the primary drivers. The drivers of built-up land expansion shifted from population-related pressures during 1980–2000 to stronger policy regulation effects after 2000, indicating a transition in human–land interactions. Conservation policies, including nature reserve establishment and Ramsar designation, provided important institutional support for ecological management. These findings highlight the importance of integrating long-term land-use dynamics with natural, socioeconomic and policy contexts to improve the understanding and management of coastal wetlands vulnerability under rapid urbanization.