EM-FEWS: An Exchange Market Pressure-Based Financial Early Warning System for India

This paper develops EM-FEWS, an Exchange Market Pressure-based financial early warning system for India, built using the KLR (Kaminsky-Lizondo-Reinhart) methodology. The model is designed to identify periods of currency and exchange market stress before they escalate into full-blown financial crises, using publicly available macroeconomic data. The framework is fully transparent and replicable, offering a practical tool for assessing external sector vulnerability in emerging market economies such as India. The paper is also available on SSRN and MPRA.