Economic context and migrant perceptions: a multilevel study of Latin American countries

Abstract The present study examines the perception of migrants and their integration in Latin American countries, using data from the 2020 Latinobarometro survey, supplemented by information on immigration shares and per capita GDP for 2020. The theoretical framework is based on the Group Threat Theory, which suggests that perceived threats to the dominant ‘groups’ status or resources can influence attitudes towards minority groups. The methodology employed is a multilevel analysis at the national level, considering both individual and macroeconomic factors. The results show that per capita GDP initially has a counterintuitive effect, with higher economic prosperity associated with greater perceptions of immigration as harmful, contrary to the expectations of Group Threat Theory. However, once the share of Venezuelan migrants is included in the model, the effect of GDP turns negative and statistically significant, in line with theoretical predictions. This suggests that economic context mitigates perceived threat when the composition of migration is taken into account. The proportion of Venezuelan migrants emerges as a key variable, influencing public opinion beyond the sheer volume of migration and reflecting this specific group’s political and social salience in the region. Among individual-level factors, age, education, and employment status significantly shape attitudes toward migrants, with economic insecurity and lower levels of education generally associated with more negative perceptions.