Geopolitical recoupling in a fragmenting global economy: diversification-led friendshoring in China’s agri-food production networks in Tanzania and Nigeria

Global production networks are increasingly reconfigured by geopolitical tension, trade fragmentation and supply-chain securitisation. The Sino–US rivalry and regional conflicts are accelerating the (re)organisation of sourcing and production strategies and the expansion of South–South trade, as emerging Chinese transnational firms diversify production beyond traditional supply hubs. In this context, Chinese agri-business firms are reorienting investment and sourcing towards African economies through diversification-led friendshoring strategies. Drawing on fieldwork conducted between 2021 and 2025, this article compares Tanzania’s soybean and Nigeria’s sesame sectors to examine how these dynamics reshape Chinese firm-orchestrated agri-food production networks. Based on this comparative analysis, we argue that diversification-led friendshoring operates through multi-scalar processes of state–firm coordination, extraterritorial institutional mediation and the selective mobilisation of regional assets. The article advances debates in the political economy of GPNs and geopolitics by theorising diversification-led friendshoring as a form of place-based geopolitical recoupling, through which geopolitical alignment restructures the institutional conditions of market access, development opportunities and supply-chain risk, generating uneven regional outcomes across South–South agri-food networks.