Forecasting the endodontic workforce supply and population needs in Saudi Arabia up to 2030: A trend and predictive modeling study

Abstract Introduction: Understanding future specialist capacity is essential for planning sustainable oral-health services. Despite advanced dental education and healthcare services in Saudi Arabia, no comprehensive forecast of the endodontic workforce has been previously done, to the best of our knowledge. This study aims to forecast the endodontic workforce in Saudi Arabia up to 2030 through integrating demographic, professional registry, and service-utilization datasets. Materials and Methods: A stock-and-flow modeling approach was applied using national registration data for licensed endodontists (2012–2024), population estimates, and procedure volumes from the Ministry of Health. Three scenarios were generated, including baseline (8%), conservative (5%), and enhanced growth (12% annual expansion). Sensitivity analysis (±10%) was conducted to test model robustness. Workforce indicators included specialist supply, endodontist-to-population ratios, regional distribution, and mean caseload per specialist. Results: The models project an increase from 1336 endodontists in 2024 to 2006 by 2030, with the enhanced-growth scenario reaching approximately 2630 specialists. Population coverage is expected to improve from 3.78 to 5.33 – 6.0 endodontists per 100,000 population. Mean caseload per specialist is projected to decrease from 266 procedures in 2024 to 160–190 by 2030. However, marked regional disparities persist: over 60% of specialists are concentrated in Riyadh, Makkah, and the Eastern Province, while several peripheral regions remain below the three endodontists per 100,000 people. Conclusions: The projections indicate expected growth in endodontist numbers up to 59.35% by 2030 in Saudi Arabia, accompanied by increased endodontist-to-population ratios and a reduction in mean caseload per endodontist. However, regional disparities are expected to persist, with central regions retaining higher workforce concentrations than peripheral areas.