Counterintuitive Landscape Ecological Risk in Low-Sensitivity Areas: A Dual-Coupling Analysis of Land Use and Landscape Pattern in the Dianchi Lake Urban Region, Kunming, China

Ecological sensitivity zoning is widely used in conservation planning, yet the interaction between land-use structure and landscape ecological risk across different sensitivity levels remains underexplored. We propose a dual-coupling framework—integrating (i) land-use composition and (ii) landscape patterns with ecological sensitivity—to assess landscape ecological risk. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) weighted sensitivity factors across five units (Levels 1, 3, 5, 7, and 9). The entropy weight method derived the Landscape Ecological Risk Index (LERI), while ridge regression and partial least squares regression (PLSR) identified key explanatory land-use variables. When land use is included in the sensitivity zoning, unexpectedly, the low-sensitivity zone (Level 3) exhibited the highest LERI (0.7588), whereas the non-sensitive zone (Level 1) recorded the lowest (0.1732). Ridge regression at the sensitivity-level scale revealed grassland (β = 0.255, VIP = 1.596) as the strongest positive correlate of LERI. Construction land showed a negative association at this scale (β = −0.433, VIP = 1.299). Grid-scale validation, however, indicated that the construction-land relationship is scale dependent, with grassland remaining the only factor consistently positive across both scales. PLSR validated these sensitivity-level trends, with grassland ranking highest in VIP across both models. Mechanistically, low-sensitivity zones feature a mixed mosaic of cropland, grassland, and construction land, intensifying landscape fragmentation. Conversely, non-sensitive zones, dominated by uniform construction land, exhibit landscape homogenization and correspondingly lower risk. This study challenges the traditional assumption that high ecological sensitivity inherently dictates high risk, emphasizing that land-use-driven landscape fragmentation in low-sensitivity zones warrants priority in ecological risk assessments.