Seasonal Topoclimatic zoning for mechanized peanut expansion in Brazil

Agroclimatic and topographic zoning can support climate-informed agricultural decision-making by translating climate variability into spatially explicit suitability patterns. This study developed a national-scale zoning framework for peanut ( Arachis hypogaea L.) cultivation in Brazil by integrating temperature, climatic water deficit, and terrain slope at both annual and seasonal scales (first season: September–April; second season: January–September). Climatic variables were derived from high-resolution gridded datasets, and topographic information was obtained from a digital elevation model. Water deficit was estimated to be using a climatic water balance approach, and unsuitable areas were excluded based on land-use and land-cover constraints. Spatial processing and integration were conducted using QGIS and R software according to technical suitability criteria established in the literature. Results showed that the first growing season presents broad climatic suitability across Brazil, whereas the second season is strongly constrained by water deficit, limiting the feasibility of rainfed cultivation in several regions. Mato Grosso do Sul and Mato Grosso emerged as promising expansion areas due to favorable mechanizable terrain and moderately suitable climatic conditions, although with increasing irrigation requirements. The MATOPIBA region demonstrated adequate thermal and topographic suitability but high irrigation dependence. Despite climatic constraints, São Paulo remains the principal production hub, supported by advanced mechanization, integrated crop systems, and established infrastructure. Overall, this framework provides a climate service by translating climate variability into actionable information for risk-informed agricultural expansion and regional planning.