Analysis of Drivers of Urban Land-Use Types in Mining Areas Based on Remote Sensing Imagery and Projections of Future Scenarios: A Case Study of Jungar Banner

The evolution of land-use types in mining cities is critical for balancing resource exploitation and ecological sustainability. Taking Jungar Banner as a case study, this study uses remote sensing imagery and auxiliary data (2010–2025) to examine spatiotemporal land-use changes, applies the OPGD model to detect driving factors, and integrates a Markov chain with an optimized NEGM-MOP-PLUS model to project 2030 land-use patterns under multiple scenarios. Results show that grassland shrank markedly, while cropland and built-up land expanded—the latter reaching 395.75 km2 by 2025. After 2020, core mining areas became more contiguous, while peripheral zones showed increased fragmentation, with built-up land expansion becoming the dominant trend. Driving forces shifted from natural constraints to anthropogenic dominance: natural factors prevailed in 2010, mining impacts took the lead by 2015, and a mining–precipitation dual-core structure emerged by 2020. Future projections indicate continued grassland and bare land reduction, alongside water and built-up land expansion across all scenarios. Among them, the CDS, which balances economic and ecological objectives, is identified as the optimal spatial planning direction based on ecosystem service value (ESV) assessment. These findings offer practical guidance for managing land-use transitions in arid and semi-arid resource-based mining regions.