Oil Price Vulnerability and Macroeconomic Factors: In the Face of Foreign Exchange Shortages in Bolivia

Establishing the causal relationship between international oil prices and the macroeconomic factors of Bolivia's economic and social activity are an instrument for its economic development and public policies, vulnerability in the international oil market has modified the price of crude oil, but also production, refining, logistics costs and uncertainty about energy supply and even more so in a scenario of macroeconomic instability. given its high dependence on the import of diesel and gasoline fuels. Thus, the objective of this research is to identify, analyze and determine which are the causal variables of the oil price, this variable is dependent on the study variables such as fuel imports, international reserves, exchange rate and inflation, and fiscal and trade balances that will be studied, in a scenario of shortage of foreign currency in Bolivia. From a time series sample from 2006 to 2026, the study variables will be analyzed, with the polynomial projections of each of the variables in relation to the price of oil. Subsequently, we developed a multiple regression, with the six independent variables in correlation to the price of oil, the results obtained yielded six variables with positive coefficients and the most correlated are the exchange rate, inflation and fuel imports and the least influential are net international reserves and fiscal and trade balances, the regression of the econometric model reached a 91% multiple correlation.