Long-term monitoring of active layer thickness confirms global permafrost degradation

Abstract Active layer increase may contribute to greenhouse gas emissions, ecosystem change, and increased hazards. Here, we show the results of field measurements of active-layer thickness from 156 monitoring sites in Arctic, Antarctic and mountain permafrost regions. Active layer thickness increased significantly at 55% and 38% of sites in the Arctic and Antarctic regions, at more than 90% European mountain and high elevation Asian sites, and at sites in South America, demonstrating worldwide permafrost degradation during the first quarter of this century (2000–2024). The largest changes were observed in mountain regions where active layer doubled at several sites. The smallest changes were observed at sites with thick surficial organic horizons and high ground ice content. In continuous permafrost, sites generally exhibited smaller increases compared to sites in discontinuous permafrost. Regression analysis indicates Arctic active layer changes are attributable to increasing thawing degree-days, followed by increases in total rainfall. Other permafrost regions require more sites and longer time-series to draw conclusions regarding active layer change attribution.

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Publication Details

Journal
Communications Earth & Environment
Published
2026-08-26
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03824-1
Primary Topic
Climate change and permafrost
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
0.00

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article

Long-term monitoring of active layer thickness confirms global permafrost degradation

Christin Hilbich, Nicoletta Cannone, C. R. Burn, Robert K. Kaufmann et al.
Communications Earth & Environment
Climate change and permafrost
article

Long-term monitoring of active layer thickness confirms global permafrost degradation

Christin Hilbich, Nicoletta Cannone, C. R. Burn, Robert K. Kaufmann, Julia Boike, Hanne H. Christiansen, Д. Г. Замолодчиков, Martin Hoelzle, Anna Irrgang, Sharon L. Smith, Alexey Maslakov, Mauro Guglielmin, Christian Hauck, Frederick E. Nelson, Cécile Pellet, Oleg Tregubov, Michaela Kňažková, Gonçalo Vieira, D. G. Fyodorov-Davydov, Felix Pretis, Pavel Orekhov, Reynald Delaloye, Anna E. Klene, Miguel Ángel de Pablo Hernández, Margareta Johansson, Paolo Pogliotti, Kelsey E. Nyland, Artem Khomutov, Andrey Abramov, Andreas Vieli, C Duchesne, Mikhail Mastepanov, D. A. Streletskiy, Marcia Phillips, Daniel A. Rudd, Florence Magnin, Anarmaa Sharkhuu, Marina Leibman, V. E. Romanovsky, Stefano Ponti, Jeannette Noetzli, Ketil Isaksen, Christophe Lambiel, Alexander Kholodov, N. I. Shiklomanov, Lin Chen, Guoyu Li, Michael Mann, Vasily Tolmanov, Thomas Douglas, Natsagdorj Sharkhuu, Emma Haggerty, Anna Davydova, Wei Cao, Filip Hrbáček, Dario Trombotto Liaudat, Elena Babkina, Lev Kuziakin, Valery Grebenets, Wenbing Yu, Sergey Davydov, Pavel Konstantinov, Alexey Lupachev, Frank Urban
article en

Abstract

Abstract Active layer increase may contribute to greenhouse gas emissions, ecosystem change, and increased hazards. Here, we show the results of field measurements of active-layer thickness from 156 monitoring sites in Arctic, Antarctic and mountain permafrost regions. Active layer thickness increased significantly at 55% and 38% of sites in the Arctic and Antarctic regions, at more than 90% European mountain and high elevation Asian sites, and at sites in South America, demonstrating worldwide permafrost degradation during the first quarter of this century (2000–2024). The largest changes were observed in mountain regions where active layer doubled at several sites. The smallest changes were observed at sites with thick surficial organic horizons and high ground ice content. In continuous permafrost, sites generally exhibited smaller increases compared to sites in discontinuous permafrost. Regression analysis indicates Arctic active layer changes are attributable to increasing thawing degree-days, followed by increases in total rainfall. Other permafrost regions require more sites and longer time-series to draw conclusions regarding active layer change attribution.

Communications Earth & EnvironmentVol. 7(1)
Boston University (US), Agenzia Regionale per la Protezione Ambientale del Piemonte (IT), University of Insubria (IT), Alfred-Wegener-Institut Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung (DE), Natural Resources Canada (CA), United States Geological Survey (US), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (FR), Norwegian Meteorological Institute (NO), Geological Survey of Canada (CA), Mongolian Academy of Sciences (MN), University of Alaska Fairbanks (US), University of Lisbon (PT), University of Fribourg (CH), Northern Michigan University (US), Universidad de Alcalá (ES), George Washington University (US), Lomonosov Moscow State University (RU), University of Zurich (CH), Aarhus University (DK), University of Victoria (CA), Masaryk University (CZ), Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory (US), Swedish Polar Research Secretariat (SE), Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin (DE), United States Army (US), Institute of Physical-Chemical and Biological Problems in Soil Science (RU), Centro de Estudos em Geografia e Ordenamento do Territorio (PT), Earth Cryosphere Institute (RU), Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources (CN), Melnikov Permafrost Institute of the Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Science (RU), Geographical Institute (HU), Centre for Forest Ecology and Productivity (RU), Interdisciplinary Scientific Research (US), Changzhou City Planning and Design Institute (CN), Austrian Research Centre for Forests (AT), Urals Research Center for Radiation Medicine (RU), Chongqing Jiaotong University (CN), National University of Mongolia (MN), Carleton University (CA), University of Montana (US), Université Savoie Mont Blanc (FR), Michigan State University (US), University of Lausanne (CH)
National Science Foundation, U.S. Department of Defense, Northwestern University, George Washington University, Aarhus Universitet, Michigan State University, University of Cincinnati, University of Montana, Polarforskningssekretariatet, Northern Michigan University, Ministerstvo Školství, Mládeže a Tělovýchovy, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas, Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, Akademie der Naturwissenschaften, Università degli Studi dell'Insubria, Universidad de Alcalá, Far East Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, Russian Science Foundation, Masarykova Univerzita, Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation, Lomonosov Moscow State University, College of Engineering, Michigan State University, Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program, Natural Resources Canada, Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Russian Academy of Sciences, Bundesamt für Umwelt, Army Research Office
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Climate change and permafrost
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