When strategic culture is a good predictor of future behavior and when it is not

The article furthers an understanding of when a state’s strategic culture is a good predictor of its strategic behavior and when it is not, focusing on the use of force in the short term. The article evaluates how two conditions can influence the predictive ability of strategic culture. The first concerns whether the state has a consistent or an inconsistent culture. The second condition addresses the perception of the state of the strategic situation it is facing, separating between strategic concerns, ordeals, shocks and surprises. The main argument is that strategic culture can be a promising point of departure for prediction when the state has a consistent culture and when it perceives a strategic concern. Compared to the other combinations, a consistent culture in conjunction with a strategic concern is more likely to reduce the number of options that the state finds appropriate for dealing with the challenge at hand.