Assessing the moderating effects of artificial canal construction on regional ecosystem services: a state-space-regulation framework based on multi-objective sustainability scenarios

The construction of artificial canals severely disrupts the coordinated development of landscape cover patterns and ecological functions. Quantitatively assessing their redistribution effects on Ecosystem Service (ES) functions and the trade-off/synergy dynamics is of great significance. This study, using the Pinglu Canal construction as a case, integrated SSP-RCP-based PLUS scenario simulations, the “Pressure-State-Response”(PSR) evaluation framework, and InVEST and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) models to develop a “State-Space-Regulation” (SSR) response assessment framework for artificial canal construction. It systematically revealed the landscape pattern evolution triggered by canal construction and its impacts on ES trade-offs and synergies. The results showed that: (1) In terms of landscape disturbance, the expansion of water area (5.3%), increased land use dynamic degree (18%), and aggravated landscape fragmentation (10.5%) were significant characteristics after the canal construction; (2) Under the SSP245 (intermediate pathway) scenario, the synergistic relationship between Carbon Storage (CS) and Habitat Quality (HQ) improved significantly (correlation coefficient increased by 0.14); whereas under the SSP585 (high‑carbon pathway) scenario, intensive human intervention significantly strengthened the trade-off relationship between Water Retention (WR) and HQ (correlation coefficient decreased by 0.08). Moreover, WR and Soil Retention (SR) exhibited a notable “distance-decay effect along the canal proximity”, indicating that ecological interactions became more sensitive closer to the canal; (3) The driving mechanism of ES evolution shifted towards human activity dominance (contribution rate increased by 40% ∼ 50%). Given that the SSP245 scenario most effectively balanced economic and ecological sustainable development in the canal region, it is necessary to propose Nature-based Solutions (NbS) for coordinating the ESs in artificial canal basins based on this scenario. This study can provide important technical and theoretical support for assessing the environmental effects and sustainable development of major ecological projects such as “artificial canals”.