Forecasting under-five mortality rate in ethiopia using global health observatory data, 1990–2023

The under-five mortality rate (U5MR) refers to the probability a newborn would die before reaching exactly 5 years of age, expressed per 1,000 live births. It is a key indicator of child health and overall development. Despite global progress, an estimated 4.9 million children died before reaching age five in 2024. Ethiopia has made substantial progress in reducing U5MR; however, the current pace of decline raises concerns about achieving Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 3.2.1, which aims to reduce U5MR to ≤ 25 deaths per 1,000 live births by 2030. Time-series forecasting is increasingly used in public health for evidence-based planning, yet evidence using updated data remains limited for Ethiopia. Therefore, this study aims to forecasts Ethiopia’s U5MR up to 2030 and assesses progress toward the SDG target. The study used U5MR estimates for Ethiopia from the Global Health Observatory Data Repository (1990–2023). Three time‑series forecasting models—Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Exponential Smoothing (ETS), and Bayesian Structural Time Series (BSTS)—were fitted. The final model was selected based on the lowest values of Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) combined with satisfactory residual diagnostics, indicating no remaining autocorrelation. ARIMA achieved the lowest MAE (0.3872) and MAPE (0.7290%), while ETS showed a marginally lower RMSE (0.4441). ARIMA was selected based on overall performance and residual diagnostics. Using this model, Ethiopia’s U5MR is projected to decline to 34.96 deaths per 1,000 live births (95% PI: 26.45–43.48) by 2030. Ethiopia may face challenges in achieving the SDG 3.2.1 target if the current pace of decline continues; therefore, the annual rate of reduction would need to approximately double. Accordingly, the Ministry of Health should further strengthen child health interventions and related policies.