How smugglers protect their operations: a thematic crime script analysis

Abstract Organized crime networks (OCNs) involved in smuggling constitute a persistent threat to individuals, society, and the environment. Despite significant law enforcement efforts being made to disrupt smuggling, OCNs manage to continue their operations using various protective measures. While research on smuggling procedures is growing, there have yet to be any publicly available studies focused specifically on protective measures. The purpose of this article is to strengthen the knowledge on how OCNs protect their smuggling operations from law enforcement agencies (e.g., police, customs agencies). We conducted a thematic analysis of 44 Norwegian court verdicts related to smuggling by OCNs, issued between 2020 and 2024. These years cover the entire period in which intercepted cryptophone communications from the SkyECC, Encrochat, and Anom platforms have been used as evidence in court. Using a bottom-up approach, we identified 33 types of activities used to prevent law enforcement agencies from disrupting smuggling operations. The findings are presented as a story, as a crime script, as theoretical dimensions of protective measures, and as a combined script of main crimes and support activities. Thematic crime script analysis and other methodological improvements are introduced and discussed. The findings may be used to improve detection strategies, investigations, and intelligence operations directed at organized crime; they could also be relevant to efforts to prevent other types of crime, such as terrorism, sabotage, and espionage.