Automating cost-effectiveness models with agentic artificial intelligence: Case study and implications for value assessment

BACKGROUND: Health economic modeling is conceptually sophisticated but operationally repetitive and resource intensive. Recent advances in large language models suggest potential for automating components of cost-effectiveness model development. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate whether an agentic artificial intelligence (AI) system can reliably automate cost-effectiveness model development in the context of targeted therapies for anaplastic lymphoma kinase-positive (ALK+) non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). METHODS: We developed the Agentic Health Economic Modeling Platform (A-HEMP) to construct a cost-effectiveness model for ALK+ NSCLC therapies without access to existing models in that clinical context. Modeling decisions and extracted parameters were compared with a previously published manual cost-effectiveness analysis. A-HEMP automated PICO-based scoping, modeling approach recommendation, systematic literature review, and structured parameter extraction. Performance was evaluated across 3 domains: model structure concordance, evidence identification concordance, and parameter value alignment. Deterministic cost-effectiveness outputs were calculated externally for benchmarking. RESULTS: A-HEMP identified a modeling framework aligned with the published cost-effective analysis and retrieved all primary clinical trials used for clinical efficacy inputs. Concordance in model structure and assumptions was observed in 27% of modeling dimensions, with 36% partially concordant and 36% divergent. Divergences were most prominent in survival extrapolation and intracranial progression handling. Evidence identification concordance was high for primary clinical trials (100%) but moderate for cost inputs, with 25% of evidence domains fully concordant and 38% partially concordant. Parameter value alignment was high for clinical efficacy inputs and progression-free health state utilities (<2% deviation), whereas greater variability was observed for sicker health states (12% deviation) and downstream disease management costs (25%-55% deviation). CONCLUSIONS: Agentic AI can reliably automate upstream components of cost-effectiveness model development. However, nuanced modeling decisions with less standardized methodological guidance remain areas requiring expert oversight. These findings support a hybrid paradigm in which AI augments, but does not replace, health economists in value assessment and formulary decision support within managed care settings.