MRT accessibility and HDB resale prices: distance, price association, and what the data can and cannot tell us

This paper examines whether distance from the nearest open MRT exit is associated with HDB resale prices, and whether that association varies by estate maturity, flat type, remaining lease, and time period. It uses 233,994 resale transactions spanning January 2017 to June 2026 and measures straight-line distance to the nearest MRT exit open in each transaction month. Hedonic regressions compare flats across distance bands within the same town and the same calendar month, adjusting for floor area, remaining lease, storey range, flat type, and flat model, with standard errors clustered by town. Flats within 200 m of the nearest open MRT exit sold for an estimated 19.3% more than comparable flats at least 1,200 m away, and the estimated premium was smaller in wider bands, falling to 4.2% at 800–1,200 m against the same comparison group. That comparison gives an estimated 25.2% in 2017–2019 and 16.9% in 2022–2025, so the premium has decreased over time. Estate maturity does not change the near-station premium, which is largest for 4-room flats and rises with remaining lease; these comparisons use a wider reference group than the distance bands and are not comparable with them. The pattern held in all 13 band specifications. Of four separate directional checks, three were consistent and a pre-opening check was inconclusive. All estimates describe associations in resale transaction data, not causal effects. This study cannot separate MRT proximity from unmeasured factors that are co-located with stations, such as malls, interchanges, and the estates built around them.