Combining Dense Longitudinal Records from Robotic Milking with Dense On-Farm Meteorological Data to Assess Heat Stress Effects in Dairy Cows

Climate change is increasing the frequency of heat stress events in dairy farming, adversely affecting milk production, milk composition, cow behavior, and animal health. However, many previous studies relied on distant weather-station data and low-frequency milk recording systems, limiting the assessment of short-term and delayed heat stress responses. Therefore, the aim of this study was to combine dense longitudinal data from automatic milking systems (AMS) with continuously recorded on-farm meteorological measurements to investigate the immediate and lagged effects of heat stress on Holstein dairy cows. The study included 386,587 AMS visit records from 790 cows on three commercial dairy farms in Germany, corresponding to up to 127,310 cow-day records collected between August 2022 and August 2025. Temperature–humidity index (THI) values were calculated based on dense on-farm temperature and relative humidity records and were evaluated for multiple lag periods prior to AMS recordings. Linear mixed models were applied to infer the effects of THI on production, physiological, behavioral, and milking process traits. Increasing THI was associated with reduced daily milk yield, altered milk fat and protein percentages, decreased AMS visit frequency, prolonged milking intervals, and increased milk temperature. For contemporaneous THI, an increase from THI 50 to THI 70 corresponded to model-estimated declines of −0.86 kg in daily milk yield, −0.20% in milk fat content and −0.06% in milk protein content, −0.12 daily AMS visits, and +1.14 °C in milk temperature. The strongest associations were generally observed for prompt and short-term lagged THI windows. In contrast, longer lag periods were associated with weaker and less distinct trait responses. Rather than merely confirming the established decline in milk yield under heat stress, the integrated and temporally resolved analysis revealed trait-specific response patterns across production, behavioral, physiological, health-related, and milking-process traits. In particular, milk temperature and voluntary AMS attendance showed pronounced associations with contemporaneous and short-term THI, demonstrating the value of combining AMS-derived phenotypes with high-resolution on-farm climate data for heat stress monitoring.