No evidence for climate-driven fragmentation of Neanderthal habitats prior to their extinction

The role of climate–driven habitat fragmentation in Neanderthal extinction remains widely debated. Here, we test this hypothesis by reconstructing habitat suitability, connectivity, and landscape structure across the Neanderthal range from the Last Interglacial (LIG: ~130,000 years ago) to the period preceding their disappearance (40,000 years ago), using ensemble species distribution models and high-resolution paleoenvironmental data. Despite climatic changes, spatial patterns of habitat suitability remained broadly consistent, with core areas persisting in western Europe and along major coastal regions. Suitable habitat area declined modestly toward Marine Isotope Stage 3, but this was not accompanied by reductions in connectivity, increases in landscape resistance, or fragmentation of the habitat network. Instead, connectivity remained stable or even increased locally, and major dispersal pathways persisted across Eurasia. These results indicate that large-scale climate–driven habitat fragmentation did not intensify prior to Neanderthal extinction. Rather, Neanderthal habitats remained spatially extensive and connected throughout the Late Pleistocene. Our findings therefore provide little support for fragmentation-based extinction hypotheses and are more consistent with scenarios in which ecological and demographic factors, including interactions with expanding Homo sapiens, played a central role. “Neanderthal habitats remained spatially extensive and connected throughout the Late Pleistocene in western Europe, as shown by analysis using paleoenvironmental data and ensemble species distribution models.”