Rangeland Condition Change Following the 2019 Flood in the Flinders River Catchment, North-West Queensland

Major floods following prolonged drought can substantially alter ground cover, soil stability and pasture condition, yet longer-term trajectories of rangeland recovery remain poorly understood. This study assessed land condition at 62 monitoring sites in the Flinders River catchment, north-west Queensland, following the 2019 flood, with re-assessment in 2024. Land condition was evaluated using the A–B–C–D framework alongside rainfall, satellite-derived bare ground, land type, distance to drainage and flood-extent data. In March 2019, 79% of sites were classified as C or D, reflecting the combined influence of prolonged drought and flood disturbance. By 2024, 30 of 62 sites (48%) had improved by at least one class, and median condition shifted from class C to B, though change was spatially variable. Initial land condition was negatively correlated with net change (ρ = −0.47, p < 0.001, n = 62). Rainfall showed no significant association with land condition or net change among sites, whereas dry-season bare ground was significantly associated across multiple temporal windows. These findings indicate that land condition change following drought–flood disturbance is likely associated with site-level factors, particularly residual pasture structure and soil surface condition, and highlight the value of combining field and satellite data for rangeland monitoring following extreme climate events.