A STUDY ON TRIBAL SUB PLAN AND TRIBAL WELFARE DEVELOPMENT IN KARNATAKA: AN EXPONENTIAL GROWTH MODEL ANALYSIS

Tribal communities constitute an important segment of the population of Karnataka and face various socio-economic challenges, including limited access to education, healthcare, employment, housing, infrastructure, and livelihood opportunities. So, the Karnataka Government implemented the Tribal Sub-Plan (TSP) within the broader framework of the Scheduled Tribe Component (STC), which has been an important policy mechanism for ensuring targeted development interventions for Scheduled Tribes (STs). The Government of Karnataka has implemented several welfare and development programmes through the Department of Tribal Welfare and other departments to improve the socio-economic conditions of tribal communities. According to the results, the trend equation for fund allocation, Y = 3111.682 + 805.607X, indicates an average annual increase of approximately Rs.805.61 crore. Similarly, the expenditure trend equation, Y = 2608.081 + 816.828X, shows an annual increase of approximately Rs.816.83 crore. The exponential growth model reveals a statistically significant increasing trend in both TSP fund allocation and expenditure in Karnataka during 2015–16 to 2024–25. The estimated annual exponential growth rates were 15.78% for TSP fund allocation and 16.75% for TSP expenditure. The models recorded R² values of 0.618 and 0.652, respectively, indicating that 61.8% and 65.2% of the variation in allocation and expenditure were explained by the time trend. The corresponding F-values of 12.937 and 14.970, with significance levels of 0.007 and 0.005, confirm that both models are statistically significant. Therefore, the null hypothesis is rejected and the alternative hypothesis is accepted, indicating a significant upward trend in TSP fund allocation and expenditure during the study period. The study clearly highlights the important role of TSP initiatives in promoting the socio-economic welfare and overall development of Scheduled Tribe communities in Karnataka through various interventions, including entrepreneurship support, marriage incentives, professional assistance, community infrastructure, and nutrition programmes.