Provincial Climate Resilience in China: Measurement, Spatiotemporal Evolution, and Obstacle Factors

Using panel data for 30 province-level regions in mainland China from 2010 to 2022, this study distinguishes baseline climate-resilience capacity (CRI), observed climate pressure (CP), and pressure-adjusted resilience performance (AdjCRI). CRI and AdjCRI improved, while CP declined overall and regional disparities narrowed but persisted. AdjCRI exhibits positive spatial dependence, strong state persistence, and favorable neighborhood effects on upward transitions. Major capacity bottlenecks concern innovation conversion, environmental and resource governance, fiscal capacity, government implementation, and water-related infrastructure. The findings show that capacity-only measures may misrepresent realized resilience under heterogeneous climate pressure and support differentiated, spatially coordinated adaptation policies.