Monitoring Vegetation Dynamics and Climate Variability of Burned Areas: The Case of İzmir, Türkiye

Forest fires are among the most critical disturbance agents reshaping Mediterranean ecosystems under accelerating climate change. This study employs a multi-scale remote sensing approach to examine the relationship between post-fire vegetation dynamics and climate variability in high-fire-risk areas of southern İzmir, Türkiye. Burned areas were delineated using the Burned Area Index (BAI) and differenced Normalized Burn Ratio (dNBR) applied to Landsat imagery (1990–2024) and Sentinel-2 imagery (2017–2024). Post-fire vegetation recovery was quantified through the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Soil-Adjusted Vegetation Index (SAVI), Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), Leaf Area Index (LAI), and Land Surface Temperature (LST) derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) products. Climate variables, including soil moisture, precipitation, and maximum, minimum, and mean air temperature, were derived from the TerraClimate dataset. Long-term spatiotemporal trends were assessed using the non-parametric Mann–Kendall (MK) test and Sen’s slope estimator for the 2000–2023 period. Results indicate a statistically significant increase in mean temperature (p < 0.05) and a concurrent decline in soil moisture over the past three decades, consistent with progressive atmospheric aridification. Vegetation indices exhibited marked seasonal asymmetry: significant declines in NDVI, SAVI, and LAI were recorded during summer months, whereas partial recovery was confined to the winter–spring wet season. A pronounced warm-dry shift was identified in the post-2015 period, characterized by positive Land Surface Temperature anomalies and compressed vegetation recovery windows. These findings highlight that increasing thermal stress and diminishing soil moisture collectively constrain post-fire ecosystem resilience in the Mediterranean climatic zone (MCZ). The integrated remote sensing framework developed here provides a robust and transferable basis for fire ecosystem monitoring and the formulation of climate adaptation strategies in fire-prone dryland regions.