Geographic potential of the introduced ant species (Hymenoptera: Formicidae) in Mexico, particularly in Protected Areas

Invasive ant species threaten biodiversity in Mexico and worldwide by outcompeting native species, preying on other organisms, and disrupting ecological assembly; some also damage plants and crops, affecting local economies. To identify sites with the highest suitability for establishment and to characterize spatial patterns, we modeled the ecological niches of the 43 introduced species recorded in Mexico using minimum-volume ellipsoids. We projected the potential distribution of each species across the country. We highlighted results for ants reported to cause economic damage, species recognized as invasive by the Mexican government, and areas of potential overlap within protected areas (PAs). We also build presence–absence matrices to provide detailed information on the incidence of introduced ants and to reveal spatial patterns of potential richness and invasion risk. Our models indicate that suitable conditions for establishment extend across diverse Mexican habitats, including numerous PAs, and that hotspots coincide with regions of strong human influence. These findings underscore the urgency of targeted monitoring and early detection, especially within PAs, and support the design of control strategies to prevent introduction, limit propagation, and restore affected ecosystems. Such strategies may include targeted baiting programs, surveillance at high-risk points of introduction, restrictions on the movement of soil and ornamental plants, rapid-response eradication protocols for newly detected populations, and citizen-science reporting programs coupled with expert verification. Understanding the geographic potential of introduced ants is fundamental for biodiversity conservation. It can help decision-makers prioritize vulnerable areas, allocate resources efficiently, and integrate invasion risk into national planning to safeguard biodiversity, ecosystem services, and the economy. The study provides a data-driven foundation for surveillance, prevention, and management across sectors, strengthening coordinated, evidence-based conservation actions nationwide.