Technical pathways, emission reduction potential, and benefit assessment of low-carbon development in China's petrochemical industry by 2030

Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions from China's petrochemical sector reached 470 Mt, accounting for roughly 4% of the nation's total. However, there remain little explicit industry-specific policy targets or publicly disclosed implementation strategies outlining how the sector can meet the 2030 carbon peak commitment. This study provides technical support and decision-making references for the low-carbon transformation of China petrochemical industry, offering a feasible path to balance industrial growth, emission reduction targets, and economic benefits over the next five years. Three technical routes — source emission reduction, process optimization, and CCUS — are systematically analyzed, with an in-depth discussion of the techno-economic feasibility of each route. Based on 2023 baseline data, different technical diffusion scenarios (25%, 50%, 75% and 100%) on emission reduction are constructed. The results show that with the implementation of the proposed technical measures, the industry's CO 2 emissions could be reduced by 11.1%, 20.6%, 29.9% and 38.0% respectively. After offsetting the 21.5% carbon growth driven by the “fuel-to-chemical” transition, overall carbon emissions would rise by 10.4%, 0.9%, and decline by 8.5%, and 16.5% in sequence by 2030, indicating the industry can roughly achieve its carbon peaking goal by 2030 under the 50% diffusion rate scenario. Meanwhile, carbon reduction could synergistically decrease the emissions SO 2 and NO x by 1.14 Mt/a and 0.99 Mt/a, respectively, and generate a benefit of 7.0 billion CNY as well, under the peaking scenario. It is also found that three pathways—component-oriented refining, waste heat utilization, and digitally coupled operations—contribute about 60% to emission reduction, while ethylene feedstock light-weighting, component-type refining, and hydrogen system optimization yield the highest carbon reduction benefits per tonne. Finally, with respect to the dual carbon goals for the petrochemical industry, policy recommendations are proposed, including industrial structure adjustment, advanced technology promotion, carbon market integration, financial support, and encourage innovation.