System dynamics model of smart container adoption in maritime transport: investment analysis

Purpose This paper addresses the lack of quantitative frameworks for evaluating smart container investments by developing a comprehensive system dynamics model to analyse adoption trajectories and financial performance of tracking- and tracing-enabled containers across container types, technology tiers and deployment strategies. Design/methodology/approach The model integrates S-curve technology diffusion theory, feedback-driven adoption dynamics, fleet lifecycle management and financial flow tracking. Multiple deployment scenarios, combining different adoption strategies, and portfolio compositions were simulated across baseline and premium trade route conditions to evaluate net present value, discounted payback period and profitability index. Findings All scenarios demonstrate positive net present value (NPV) and achieve discounted payback within the simulation horizon. Premium route deployment increases NPV and accelerates capital recovery. Active Internet of Things (IoT) delivers the highest absolute NPV, but results in longer payback periods. Conversely, passive radio frequency identification (RFID) achieves superior capital efficiency with faster payback. Sensitivity analysis identifies benefit realisation rates as the most influential parameter. When benchmarked against standard capital budgeting practices, smart container investments occupy the outer boundary of acceptability, with Active IoT in baseline scenarios frequently exceeding thresholds. Practical implications The findings provide actionable guidance for shipping and leasing companies regarding route prioritisation, portfolio composition, technology tier selection and deployment timing based on organisational capital constraints and strategic objectives. Originality/value This study provides a comprehensive system dynamics framework comparing investment performance across dry and reefer containers, technology tiers and multiple deployment strategies. The analysis reveals that while smart containers are technically mature, current cost structures position them at a financial tipping point.