IMPLEMENTATION EFFECTIVENESS OF THE INNOVATION PROJECT PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT MECHANISM AND ITS PROSPECTIVE STRATEGIC FORECAST

This paper examines the mechanism of innovation project portfolio management as an alternative to evaluating individual innovation projects in isolation, and assesses the conditions under which its implementation proves effective in practice. Drawing on portfolio theory, stage-gate process design, and project portfolio selection frameworks, the study identifies the core components of an effective portfolio management mechanism - selection, resource allocation, risk balancing, and monitoring - and proposes a set of key performance indicators for evaluating implementation effectiveness. Building on this framework, the paper develops a scenario-based strategic forecast of portfolio performance under optimistic, baseline, and conservative assumptions, and concludes with recommendations for strengthening portfolio governance in capital-intensive, resource-based enterprises.