Geopolitical Conflict and China’s Fossil-Fuel Import Values: Evidence from Russia and Central Asia After the Russia–Ukraine War

Geopolitical instability can reshape trade routes, prices, and energy-security risks. Using a monthly country-level panel from January 2015 to June 2025, this study estimates a difference-in-differences (DID) model for the logarithm of China’s fossil-fuel import values (USD) from Russia and four Central Asian suppliers relative to seven comparison suppliers. The corrected benchmark coefficient is −0.582. This estimate means that after March 2022, import values from the treated suppliers were lower relative to the counterfactual trend represented by the control group; it does not mean that every treated supplier experienced an absolute decline. Indeed, several country- and commodity-specific import values increased in levels, partly because the outcome combines quantity and price effects. Commodity-specific international price benchmarks are included as controls, but physical-volume data are not available in the submitted dataset. With only 11 country clusters, conventional clustered significance levels are interpreted cautiously. A 500-assignment placebo exercise provides a randomization-based robustness check, with no simulated coefficient as extreme as the benchmark estimate (empirical p ≤ 0.002 under the stated assignment scheme). Logistics performance, government stability, and energy OFDI are positively associated with import values in conditional regressions; because the article does not report interaction terms, these results are not interpreted as moderation effects. The findings support targeted attention to corridor reliability and supplier diversification, while broader operational policies require additional evidence.