Affective polarisation in the 2023 New Zealand general election

Affective polarisation has attracted recent scholarly attention to understand trends in the difference between people’s valence towards the party they support and towards other parties. At its extreme, these trends could lead to significant political consequences including declining support for democratic norms and an increased willingness for the state to persecute political opponents. Much scholarship has focused on the United States, but recent comparative studies suggest that other countries have not reported similar increases in affective polarisation. In this paper, we examine the role of affective polarisation in the 2023 New Zealand General Election using data from the New Zealand Election Study. While controlling for alternative explanations, we find that affective polarisation has declined in Aotearoa since 2014. We also find that political interest, gender, education, and political ideology influenced the extent of affective polarisation in 2023. Finally, we report that levels of affective polarisation were higher among voters for left-leaning parties, and Te Pāti Māori especially in the 2023 election. Collectively, our results indicate that there was less affective polarisation in 2023 than in previous elections, suggesting the contemporary political environment in Aotearoa remains less polarised than in some other democracies.