Assessing Climate Change and the Food–Water–Nutrition Nexus Dynamics: Evidence from Smallholder Systems in Lubombo Region, Eswatini

Climate change poses significant challenges to agricultural production, water availability, and food and nutrition security, particularly in semi-arid regions where rural livelihoods depend heavily on rain-fed agriculture. In Eswatini, increasing temperatures, erratic rainfall, and recurrent droughts have intensified pressures on smallholder farming systems; however, limited empirical research has examined how climate variability simultaneously affects agriculture, water resources, and household food security within an integrated food–water–nutrition nexus framework. Therefore, this study assessed the impacts of climate change on agricultural production, water availability, food security, and access to nutritious food among smallholder households in the Lubombo Region of Eswatini. A concurrent triangulated mixed-methods approach was employed, combining quantitative data from 880 households with qualitative insights from open-ended responses. Descriptive statistics, Spearman’s correlation, binary logistic regression, and thematic analysis were used to analyse the data. The findings reveal that climate change significantly affects both agricultural and water systems, which in turn directly influence household food security outcomes. The majority of households reported declining crop yields (56.5%), widespread food shortages (79.5%), meal skipping (69.0%), and high levels of food-related anxiety (87.6%). Water insecurity is also prevalent, with over 83% of households experiencing water shortages and nearly all respondents indicating that climate change has affected water access. Correlation and regression analyses demonstrate that drought frequency and reduced rainfall are the strongest predictors of both water insecurity and food insecurity, highlighting the central role of climate variability. Water scarcity emerged as a critical pathway linking climate change to food insecurity, with strong associations between water shortages and reduced crop yields, food shortages, and coping strategies such as skipping meals. Qualitative findings further highlighted declining agricultural productivity, loss of traditional foods, reduced dietary diversity, and increased psychological stress associated with food insecurity. The study concludes that food insecurity in the Lubombo region is multidimensional, driven by the interconnected effects of climate variability, water scarcity, and socio-economic constraints. The findings emphasise the need for integrated, climate-resilient strategies that simultaneously address agricultural production, water resource management, and household adaptive capacity to enhance food and nutrition security. Future research should evaluate the effectiveness of nexus-based adaptation strategies and climate-smart interventions in enhancing long-term food, water, and nutrition security in vulnerable smallholder farming systems.