From millet marginalisation to revival: Policy path dependence and agrarian change in Bundelkhand, India

Millets occupy a paradoxical position in India’s agrarian landscape. Historically embedded in dryland agro-ecologies, they were marginalised under the post-independence productivity paradigm of the Green Revolution. Drawing on historical institutional analysis and mixed-methods evidence from Bundelkhand, Uttar Pradesh, this article argues that millet decline resulted from institutional path dependence rather than farmer preferences alone. Three factors reinforced this decline: food security policies centred on rice and wheat, procurement and distribution systems favouring selected cereals and irrigation-centred technological pathways. Historical and policy analyses show that state support focused on a narrow cereal basket. Minimum support prices, public procurement and the Public Distribution System primarily favoured wheat and rice, while support for coarse cereals remained limited despite the release of the first sorghum and pearl millet hybrids in the mid-1960s. Recent initiatives, including the designation of millets as nutri-cereals, the International Year of Millets 2023 and the Uttar Pradesh Millets Revival Programme, signal a policy shift. However, their impact remains constrained by inherited institutional arrangements. A survey of 1942 farmers across three districts, supported by focus group discussions and key informant interviews, reveals uneven awareness of the Millet Mission, district-level constraints and unequal access to seeds, credit and information. The evidence indicates that durable revival will require promotional efforts to be complemented by sustained procurement, market and agronomic support that reaches marginal cultivators.