Habitat Shifts and Conservation Challenges of Falconidae Under Climate Change in Northwestern China

Xinjiang’s distinctive geography and climate provide important habitats for Falconidae species, yet their climate-driven habitat shifts and conservation gaps remain poorly understood. Using 2731 validated occurrence records and 26 environmental predictors, including bioclimatic, land-use, topographic, hydrological, anthropogenic, and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) predictors, we applied an optimized Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) framework to project suitable habitats for seven falconid species under current conditions and three Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios (1–2.6, 2–4.5, and 5–8.5) for 2041–2060, 2061–2080 and 2081–2100. Barycenter migration analysis, the Habitat Quality module of the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs framework, and protected-area overlays were further integrated to identify conservation priorities. All models showed high discriminatory performance, with mean areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve exceeding 0.90. Current suitable habitats were mainly concentrated along river corridors and mountain foothills in the southern Altai, central-western Tianshan and northern Kunlun regions. Future responses were strongly species-specific. By 2081–2100 under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5–8.5, suitable habitat increased by 154.6% for Falco peregrinus and 79.5% for Falco tinnunculus but declined by 81.1% for Falco vespertinus; Falco subbuteo also showed overall expansion, with its suitable-habitat barycenter shifting by up to 291.9 km. Mean relative habitat quality was 0.514 [standard deviation = 0.185], while suitable habitat outside protected areas ranged from 35,346 to 304,866 km2 among species, and high-quality priority conservation gaps reached 102,489 km2 for Falco cherrug. These results demonstrate that climatic suitability does not necessarily correspond to high habitat quality or adequate protection and support species-specific, climate-adaptive conservation strategies for falconids in Xinjiang.