Spatial–Temporal Evolution Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Chengdu

Global warming poses a serious environmental challenge worldwide. Agriculture, as a significant source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, exerts considerable influence on the atmospheric environment. Chengdu, renowned for its thriving agricultural sector, serves as a key grain production center in China. Reducing agricultural greenhouse gas (AGHG) emissions is essential for mitigating the impact of climate change on Chengdu. Firstly, this paper employed the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) coefficient method and the Super-SBM-Undesired model to calculate the AGHG emissions and emission efficiency in Chengdu, respectively. Then, center of gravity shift analysis, kernel density estimation and spatial autocorrelation theory were used to analyze the spatial–temporal evolution characteristics of AGHG emissions. Finally, this paper conducted an in-depth analysis based on the STIRPAT model to identify key factors affecting AGHG emissions. The results show that: (1) From 2007 to 2021, Chengdu experienced an overall decline in both AGHG emissions and emission intensity, with reductions of 22.32% and 66.20%, respectively. And the AGHG emission efficiency was largely low. (2) AGHG emissions display regional variations and spatial clustering phenomena, characterized by a pattern of “high in the east, low in the west, high outside and low inside”. (3) AGHG emissions are highly increased by the sown area (S) and pesticide and fertilizer utilization (F) and may be reduced by the agricultural industrial structure (V) and the urbanization rate (U). These findings provide valuable scientific insights into the spatial–temporal dynamics of regional agricultural emissions. Furthermore, this study offers practical references for local governments to optimize agricultural resource allocation, formulate tailored low-carbon agricultural policies, and promote sustainable rural development.