Education Systems and Sustainable Development in Small Island Developing States: Evidence on Vulnerability, Access, and SDG 4 Progress

ABSTRACT Achieving Sustainable Development Goal 4 (SDG 4) remains a persistent challenge in Small Island Developing States (SIDS), where education systems operate under conditions of high structural vulnerability arising from climate exposure, economic fragility, geographic isolation, and institutional constraints. Despite increasing recognition that vulnerability constrains sustainable development outcomes, limited empirical evidence exists on how vulnerability influences education system performance and interacts with education access across different educational levels. This study examines the relationship between vulnerability, education access, and SDG 4 progress in SIDS, focusing on the conditional role of education access at the primary, secondary, and tertiary levels. Using an unbalanced panel of 32 SIDS over the period 2000–2023, the analysis employs the Dynamic Common Correlated Effects Mean Group (DCCE‐MG) estimator. The findings show that vulnerability exerts a significant negative effect on SDG 4 progress, confirming that structural constraints undermine education system performance. Education access contributes positively to SDG 4 outcomes, with a clear education gradient effect in which tertiary education exhibits the strongest impact, followed by secondary and primary education. However, interaction effects reveal that vulnerability systematically weakens the effectiveness of education, particularly at higher levels. Robustness checks using alternative specifications and estimators confirm the stability of the results. The study contributes by providing new evidence on the vulnerability–education nexus in SIDS, introducing an education gradient perspective, and demonstrating the moderating role of structural vulnerability. Achieving SDG 4 in SIDS therefore requires expanding education access while addressing structural vulnerabilities that limit the effectiveness of education investments.