Inflation and medical education resources: a descriptive analysis of observed and projected real expenditure trends

In high-inflation settings, nominal budget growth may not reflect changes in the real purchasing power of educational resources. This issue may be particularly relevant in medical education, where expenditures often depend on technology-intensive inputs, specialized equipment, and other cost components that may not be adequately represented by general inflation measures. This study assessed observed and projected expenditure trends in medical education financing and examined the divergence between general inflation and education-related price growth. A descriptive longitudinal analysis was conducted for the period 2021–2025 using audited institutional expenditure data for 2021–2023 and projected estimates for 2024–2025. Nominal expenditures were adjusted using the national Education Price Index (EPI). Real expenditure trends, annual percentage changes, and the Education Inflation Gap Index (EIGI) were calculated. Cost Structure Inflation Sensitivity (CSIS) was used as a descriptive indicator to compare the relative inflation sensitivity of major expenditure categories. While nominal expenditure increased by 169.9% (from 12.7 to 34.5 million thousand Tomans) between 2021 and 2025, inflation-adjusted estimates indicated a cumulative 37.3% decline in real terms. Real expenditures showed annual reductions of 15.6% in 2023 (observed), and projected declines of 11.6% in 2024 and 13.1% in 2025. The EIGI quantified a structural divergence between national education inflation and general CPI, peaking at + 16.8% points in 2024. CSIS values were higher for capital assets and technology infrastructure (reaching 1.70), indicating greater inflation vulnerability in capital-intensive categories. These findings must be interpreted cautiously, as the 2024–2025 figures represent projected scenarios and the estimates are sensitive to the choice of the national EPI deflator. In inflationary environments, nominal budget growth alone may overstate the adequacy of educational financing. The findings are consistent with pressure on the real value of medical education resources, particularly for technology-intensive expenditure categories. Inflation-aware budgeting and more context-sensitive deflators may improve financial monitoring; however, further research using reproducible institutional price data and validated forecasting methods is needed.