Two World Cups: Technical–Tactical, Physical, and Goal-Timing Patterns in the Group Stages of the FIFA World Cup 2022 and FIFA Club World Cup 2025

The objective of this study was to compare technical–tactical, physical, and goal-timing indicators in the group stages of the FIFA World Cup 2022 and FIFA Club World Cup 2025 and to determine whether associations between performance indicators and match outcome differed between the tournaments. A retrospective observational analysis included 192 team-match observations from 96 group-stage matches. Goal distribution by match half was examined using a chi-square test, while 15 performance indicators were analysed using mixed-effects models with Tournament, Match Outcome, and Tournament × Match Outcome as fixed effects and random intercepts for Team ID and Match ID. Benjamini–Hochberg correction was applied separately to each effect family. Goal distribution by half differed between the tournaments, with a greater proportion of second-half goals in the FIFA World Cup 2022 and a more even distribution between halves in the FIFA Club World Cup 2025 (Cramér’s V = 0.135) After false discovery rate correction, significant Tournament effects were identified for final-third receptions, defensive pressures, and forced turnovers, while significant Tournament × Match Outcome interactions were observed for possession, total and completed passes, final-third receptions, and defensive pressures. Full-data negative binomial sensitivity analyses retained the three Tournament effects and all five interactions, although four Match Outcome classifications changed. Within the FIFA Club World Cup 2025, winners showed higher possession and passing volumes than losing teams, while final-third receptions and defensive pressures also differed according to tournament and match outcome context. These findings indicate that performance–outcome associations varied according to tournament context rather than reflecting a universal profile of success.