Impact of Single-Use Plastic Regulation on Ecuadorian Imports: An Interrupted Time Series Analysis of Customs Records, 2014–2025

Single-use plastic pollution is a critical global challenge, prompting nations to enact trade-restrictive environmental policies. This study evaluated the impact of Ecuador’s single-use plastic regulation on the imports of regulated plastic products. Analyzing five tariff headings from 2014 to 2025, we integrated official customs records with Interrupted Time Series (ITS) models to estimate regulatory effects. The results revealed sharply divergent trajectories across product categories: imports of plastic waste (HS 3915) declined from US dollars (USD) 4193 in 2020 to zero by 2024, while the remaining four regulated headings, plastic bags, packaging, tableware, and household articles, expanded continuously, with import volumes increasing between 48% and 74% in the post-regulatory period. ITS models confirmed statistically significant trend changes in headings 3915.00, 3923.29, and partially 3924.10, whereas headings 3923.21 and 3924.90 showed no statistically detectable response. Regulatory effects manifested primarily through gradual trend modifications rather than abrupt post-enactment contractions, and supplier structure analysis documented a systematic reorganization of international sourcing patterns, indicating that the trade response extended well beyond simple import reduction.