Navigating Complexity of 3PL-Led Low-Carbon Supply Chains: A Two-Stage Dynamic Coordination Mechanism for Sustainability and Resilience Under Information Asymmetry

To address the issue where information asymmetry in third-party logistics (3PL)-led low-carbon supply chain coordination undermines coordination efficiency, thereby threatening the sustainability and resilience of supply chain cooperation, this paper develops a Stackelberg dynamic game model with the 3PL as the leader. This model is constructed within the context where consumers’ low-carbon preferences influence product demand, and a government carbon cap policy is implemented. By comparing decentralized and centralized equilibria, we verify that centralized collaboration achieves dual gains: higher carbon reduction levels and greater overall supply chain profits, which strengthens sustainability and resilience. To address efficiency losses from three types of information asymmetry, we propose a two-stage dynamic coordination mechanism adapted to evolving cooperation transparency. At the initial stage with opaque information, a bargaining-power-weighted profit-sharing contract is adopted, where negotiation weights are quantified by enterprise scale, resource control and industry influence. After data transparency improves, the system switches to a Nash bargaining framework supported by blockchain carbon data sharing to realize stable long-term collaboration. Numerical cases and sensitivity analysis demonstrate that manufacturer cost information asymmetry is the primary constraint on coordination efficiency. The proposed dynamic coordination scheme effectively mitigates systemic complexity, balancing economic benefits and carbon reduction targets. This study provides practical pathways for supply chain participants to navigate complex low-carbon environments and advance sustainable, resilient supply chain operation.