Quantifying Industrial Sustainability and EU CBAM Exposure for Turkey’s Cement Exports Under Carbon Pricing Scenarios Through 2030

The European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) introduces significant implications for sustainable trade and industrial decarbonization for non-EU industrial exporters. As a major cement supplier to the EU, Turkey faces key economic and environmental transition risks under this framework. This study quantifies the compliance exposure of Turkey’s cement exports to the EU by 2030 within an industrial sustainability framework across multiple carbon pricing, domestic policy, and decarbonization scenarios. Incorporating time-series forecasting, benchmark emissions intensities, and the operational 2026 CBAM regulatory framework alongside Turkey’s Climate Law No. 7552, the study evaluates compliance costs relative to export revenues. Results indicate that under business-as-usual conditions, without decarbonization or domestic carbon pricing, CBAM surcharges would equal 154% of total export revenue by 2030. Accounting for the 2030 CBAM phase-in factor (48.5%), compliance costs remain substantial at 75% of revenue. Establishing a national Emissions Trading System (TR ETS) under Climate Law No. 7552, with a domestic carbon price of €20/tCO2e, reduces residual CBAM border payments to 44% of revenue, while a €50/tCO2e domestic price offsets border surcharges entirely, redirecting carbon revenues to an industrial green transition fund. Furthermore, achieving a 41% reduction in direct cement emissions intensity lowers total carbon compliance costs to 21–26% of revenue. These findings demonstrate that domestic carbon pricing paired with dedicated resource allocation for low-carbon technologies is essential to advance long-term industrial sustainability, preserve export competitiveness, and prevent pass-through risks to downstream construction sectors.