Delayed Associations Between Burned Forest Area and Administrative Counts of Target Wildlife Species in Türkiye

Evidence linking annual wildfire burden to administrative wildlife monitoring counts remains limited, particularly in fire-prone Mediterranean settings. This study examined whether wildfire activity was associated with province-level administrative target-species monitoring counts in Türkiye, focusing on delayed rather than contemporaneous relationships. A retrospective ecological panel design (2005–2024) harmonized official wildfire and wildlife inventory data across 22 Turkish provinces (440 observations). Two-way fixed effects panel models estimated same-year, lagged, and supplementary robustness associations between wildfire exposure (fire count, burned area, and damage per fire) and administrative target-species counts. Same-year models showed no clear associations. Burned area showed its clearest negative association at a two-year lag, while paired models indicated negative one- and two-year associations for burned area and damage per fire. Province-specific trend models preserved the main negative directions, and false-discovery-rate adjustment retained the lag-1 burned-area and damage-per-fire terms in the paired model families. The lag-2 burned-area association remained visible after excluding 2021 and after winsorizing extreme burned-area values. Restricted target-frame sensitivity analyses supported a narrower interpretation of the administrative outcome; deer/roe-deer frames showed negative cumulative burned-area associations, whereas wild-goat frames yielded less precise estimates. Burned area and damage per fire were interpreted as spatial fire-footprint indicators rather than direct burn-severity measures. The highest composite risk scores were observed in Antalya, Muğla, and İzmir. Distinguishing wildfire frequency from areal fire burden remains central for interpreting delayed administrative monitoring patterns.