Does rural accommodation diversify accommodation calendars? Provincial evidence from Spain’s hotel–rural accommodation portfolio

This study examines whether diversification of accommodation supply transforms into diversification of visitor timing. Using monthly hotel and rural accommodation data for Spain’s 50 provinces in 2015–2019 and 2023–2024, it distinguishes operating capacity from realized demand, measures hotel–rural calendar alignment, and compares pooled, within-province, Mundlak, temporal, regional, and spatially robust estimates. Inland provinces had larger rural operating shares and flatter aggregate calendars, yet rural accommodation was more seasonal than hotels in most provinces, and the two calendars were closely aligned. Adding rural nights slightly increased combined seasonal concentration, while adjusted and within-province models provided no stable evidence that a larger rural operating share reduced seasonality. The findings show that accommodation diversification does not necessarily produce temporal diversification. Policy should therefore prioritize calendar complementarity, off-season service continuity, establishment opening, and market timing rather than rural bed capacity alone.