Mapping the SDG development space and GDP-Sustainability to monitor African progress trajectories

Africa’s sustainable development has so much potential, an axiomatic demonstration of the continent’s resilience despite its internal challenges, but the current trajectory raises questions as the United Nations 2030 Agenda approaches its final phase. This paper examines SDG progress across Africa through a scope that combines network analysis, complexity metrics derived from the Goal Sustainability Index (GSI), Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA), and Quantile-on-Quantile (QQ) regression, applied across Africa at four benchmark years (2010, 2015, 2018, 2022) and 15 representative African economies over 2000 to 2023. Three findings emerge: First, the continental SDG network exhibits polarization, with an initial core-periphery in 2010, then a density decline in 2015 as the 2030 agenda expanded the indicator portfolio, followed by peak connectivity in 2018, then contraction in 2022. Second, African countries’ RCA concentrate in low-complexity, while high-complexity indicators in governance, education, and water management remain largely out of reach. Third, QQ regression demonstrates that economic growth is most consistently associated with Social SDG gains, while Environmental SDGs remain the weakest and most volatile. The problems that plague the process of integrating SDGs into the economies of Africa are due largely to the nature of their definition and the complexity of their practical operation, which are aggravated by the decision-making processes of individual countries. To that end, transformative change can occur through cooperation that cuts across several sectors, and policymakers must prioritize SDGs capable of cross-sector spillovers.