Merging artificial intelligence and retinal vascular geometric parameters: A novel tool for diagnosis and prognosis prediction of diabetic nephropathy

Abstract Background: Diabetic nephropathy (DN) is the leading cause of end-stage renal disease. The retinal microvasculature, as the only directly observable microvasculature, may reflect DN progression. This study aims to construct a non-invasive diagnostic and prognostic prediction model using the mixed effects of retinal vascular geometric parameters and clinical data. Methods: We constructed a multimodal database including 397 patients with type 2 diabetes and chronic kidney disease from multiple centers in China. The primary cohort (374 patients) was recruited from the Department of Nephrology at the First Medical Center of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army General Hospital in Beijing between 2017 and 2022, while an external validation cohort (23 patients) was collected from five other hospitals across China from September 2022 to March 2023. Fundus images, clinical characteristics, renal biopsy diagnoses, and follow-up data were collected. Unsupervised learning and Resnet neural networks were used to segment and calculate retinal vascular geometric parameters. Weighted quantile regression (WQS), Lasso, and COX univariable regressions were employed to assess the mixed effects of retinal vascular geometric parameters and select relevant clinical characteristics. Logistic regression and Cox regression with random forest (COX-RF) were used for model construction. Results: A multimodal database of 397 patients was constructed. A diagnostic model combining retinal parameters (WQS-diagnosis) and seven clinical characteristics achieved superior performance: AUC 0.98, accuracy 0.92 on the test set, outperforming models using only clinical data (AUC 0.93) or two retinal parameters plus clinical data (AUC 0.94). On the multi-centre validation set, the model maintained accuracy 0.91 and AUC 0.95. For prognosis, a mixed-effects parameter (WQS-prognosis) was derived; the COX-RF model achieved an AUC of 0.88. Conclusions: Retinal microvasculature are effective biomarkers for DN. The proposed non-invasive model demonstrated high accuracy and generalizability, offering a valuable tool for optimising DN management.